The Outlook for Stock Market Returns in 2024

The Outlook for Stock Market Returns in 2024

The stock market had an impressive run in 2023, but what can investors expect in 2024? Wall Street strategists are predicting much lower returns and warning of potential risks that could impact stock market performance. Let’s take a closer look at the outlook for stock market returns in the new year.

Stock futures were flat in overnight trading on Monday, signaling a lukewarm start to the new year. Despite the strong rally in 2023, with the S&P 500 climbing for nine consecutive weeks, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up just 18 points. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures traded near the flatline. The market was closed on New Year’s Day, providing investors with some time to reflect on the year ahead.

The stock market had an exceptional year in 2023. The S&P 500 rallied by an impressive 24%, marking its best win streak since 2004. Technology shares, particularly mega-cap stocks, were the driving force behind the market’s advance. Apple soared by 48%, Microsoft surged by nearly 57%, and Nvidia skyrocketed by 239%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended the year up by 43.4%, its best performance since 2020. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average also logged a respectable gain of 13.7% and reached a new record high during the year.

After the stellar performance in 2023, Wall Street strategists are tempering their expectations for 2024. According to the CNBC PRO exclusive Market Strategist Survey, the top 14 strategists from major firms anticipate a much lower return for the S&P 500. They predict that the index will end the year at 4,881, representing a modest increase of only about 2.3% from its closing level of 4,769.83 on Friday. This subdued forecast reflects concerns about a potentially weaker economy and lower consumer spending, which could in turn lead to slower earnings growth for Corporate America.

While strategists are not necessarily predicting a major downturn, there are several risks that could impact stock market returns in 2024. One of the potential risks highlighted by Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, is a decline in earnings per share amid cooler growth and waning price power. This could be particularly problematic if the decline is larger than expected, impacting investor sentiment and potentially leading to a sell-off. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s actions and any unexpected monetary policy shifts could influence market performance.

The stock market’s impressive performance in 2023 may be difficult to replicate in the new year. Wall Street strategists are anticipating much lower returns, cautioning investors about potential risks and highlighting challenges such as weaker economic growth and earnings decline. While it may not be a booming year for stocks, investors should keep a close eye on market developments and adjust their strategies accordingly to navigate potential headwinds in 2024.


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