The Bank of England’s next move in terms of monetary policy is now uncertain, following a surprising downside in August’s inflation numbers. This unexpected turn of events has created uncertainty in the market, with traders reevaluating their expectations for an interest rate hike. The central bank had been widely expected to increase rates by 25 basis points to 5.5%, but now, the probability of a rate hold has risen significantly. This article will delve into the implications of the August inflation print and discuss the factors influencing the Bank of England’s decision.
The market sentiment abruptly changed after August’s annual headline consumer price index (CPI) fell to 6.7% from the previous month’s 6.8%. This defied consensus forecasts, which had predicted an increase to 7%. As a result, the probability of the Bank holding rates steady at 5.25% rose from 20% to over 57%, according to LSEG swaps data. The core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco prices, also showed a decline from 6.9% in July to 6.2% in August. While the goods rate experienced a slight increase from 6.1% to 6.3%, it was offset by a significant slowdown in the services rate, dropping from 7.4% to 6.8%.
In light of the surprise inflation figures, Goldman Sachs revised its projection for the upcoming rate decision, now predicting that the Bank of England will keep its main bank rate unchanged. Further supporting this projection are the recent comments from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that have been perceived as dovish. With two out of three inflation persistence indicators demonstrating more progress than initially anticipated, Barclays analysts believe that the decision on Thursday has become “much more finely balanced.” However, despite this adjustment, the analysts still lean towards a 25 basis point increase, albeit with a more dovish vote split among MPC members.
While the downside surprise in August’s inflation strengthens the case for a pause in rate hikes, economists still anticipate a future increase. The MPC is likely to focus on the fact that price pressures remain above the Bank of England’s 2% target, despite the sharp fall in core inflation. The underlying demand of the economy also appears resilient, and wage pressures remain elevated, contributing to service cost pressures. Consequently, economists forecast that the MPC will proceed with caution, signaling that further rate hikes are unlikely as long as inflation continues to trend lower.
The Bank of England now faces the challenge of balancing inflation concerns with sustaining the robust economy. The recent slew of profit warnings from British companies, coupled with a 0.5% contraction in the economy in July, below consensus forecasts, intensifies the pressure on the MPC to reassess its stance on rate hikes. The downside inflation shock, along with the weakening GDP figures, may provide enough room for the MPC to adopt a more cautious approach and adopt a wait-and-see strategy.
The Bank of England’s next move in monetary policy is uncertain due to the surprising inflation figures for August. The market has reevaluated its expectations, with the probability of a rate hold increasing significantly. While some analysts predict no change, others still advocate for a 25 basis point increase. The delicate balancing act between managing inflation and supporting the economy adds further complexity to the decision. Ultimately, the Bank of England will need to tread cautiously and consider all the factors in its decision-making process.