In the face of persistently high interest rates and stubborn inflation, many investors have turned to fixed income products as a safe haven for their money. However, as October’s cooler-than-expected CPI print hinted at a possible end to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking campaign, two experts suggest that it is time for investors to reevaluate their allocation strategies. Dan Egan, Vice President of Behavioral Finance and Investing at Betterment, advises investors to prepare for a lower-rate environment and think about potential investment moves right now. This article explores the changing landscape of fixed income and offers insights into alternative strategies that investors should consider.
Investors who placed their cash in money market funds this year have enjoyed competitive yields comparable to those of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which surpassed the key 5% level in October. However, the recent decline in the 10-year note to 4.408% raises concerns about the future performance of money market funds. As of November 15th, a staggering $1.2 trillion has flowed into money market funds, far exceeding the $264 billion invested in bond funds and $43 billion in U.S. equity funds, according to Goldman Sachs.
Matt Bartolini, Head of SPDR Americas Research at State Street Global Advisors, believes that as the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates, the popularity of fixed income products, including money market funds, could start to decline. This shift might prompt investors to reallocate their funds and potentially move towards equities and higher risk investments. However, for those who remain within the fixed income space, Bartolini suggests focusing on the 1- to 10-year maturity range to generate a high level of income.
Recognizing the need for alternative strategies, Bartolini advises clients with a higher risk tolerance to consider shorter-duration bond funds. By investing within the 1- to 3-year duration range and employing an actively managed strategy, investors may benefit from higher yields while mitigating the volatility associated with longer duration bonds. The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY), which tracks shorter-duration notes, has gained 0.22% this year, while the iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT), with exposure to Treasurys ranging from 1 to 30 years in duration, experienced a decline of 1.85% during the same period.
Preparing for Higher-Risk Budgets
Egan agrees with Bartolini’s assessment and emphasizes the importance of setting up mental accounts and goals to manage short-term risks effectively. By having a well-diversified portfolio and insulation from potential short-term risks, investors can confidently pursue higher-risk opportunities without compromising their overall financial stability.
With the expectation of interest rates declining in the near future, investors must reevaluate their fixed income allocation strategies. While money market funds have been a popular choice due to their competitive yields, the potential decline in performance calls for a reassessment of investment options. Considering alternative strategies, such as shorter-duration bond funds, allows investors to generate higher yields while mitigating volatility. By being proactive in adjusting their investment approach, investors can position themselves to effectively navigate the changing landscape of fixed income and maximize their investment returns.