Over the past four weeks in June, the U.S. southern border has experienced significant fluctuations in the number of border crossings. A detailed comparison of data from 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 reveals important insights into the factors influencing these trends. There is not a decrease year over year despite claims that it’s down 40%.
Let’s review the real data.
June 2021
In June 2021, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported approximately 188,829 encounters at the southwest border. This surge was largely attributed to the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and ongoing economic pressures in Central America. Many migrants were motivated by dire conditions in their home countries, leading to a marked increase in border crossings.
June 2022
The following year, June 2022 saw a total of 207,416 encounters, reflecting a 14% decrease from the previous month. Despite this reduction, the number of unique individuals encountered was 153,379. This period was characterized by increased enforcement efforts and public messaging aimed at dissuading migrants from attempting the perilous journey. The prevalence of repeat crossings, due to pandemic-related expulsions under Title 42, also contributed to the high numbers .
June 2023
June 2023 continued this trend with around 198,000 total encounters at the border. This slight decrease from the previous year still indicated significant activity. Persistent socioeconomic and political instability in the migrants’ countries of origin drove these high numbers. Efforts to manage migration through policy adjustments had limited impact on the overall trend .
June 2024
Preliminary data for June 2024 suggests around 200,000 encounters, maintaining the high levels seen in previous years. Despite various policy initiatives aimed at controlling the influx, the underlying factors driving migration—economic hardship and political turmoil—remain prevalent .
The Role of Extreme Heat
Interestingly, an often-overlooked factor in the recent reduction in border crossings is the extreme heat wave gripping the southern border region. This year, temperatures have frequently soared above 100°F, making the already perilous journey even more hazardous. Experts agree that this extreme heat is a significant deterrent, impacting the decision of many potential migrants to attempt crossing the border during these summer months.
While Biden’s policy efforts and enforcement strategies continue to tell one story about illegal border crossings, the alleged recent reduction in border crossings has little to do with the current administration’s policies. Instead, the extreme heat across the southern border has made the journey untenable for many. As temperatures rise, it becomes increasingly clear that climate factors are exerting a profound influence on migration patterns, overshadowing the impact of policy measures during the hottest months of the year.