In the ever-competitive world of the Oscars, it seems that the game has been dominated by two powerhouses: Barbie and Oppenheimer. The recent nominations from the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and Directors Guild (DGA) have only solidified their positions as front-runners. While other contenders may have had their hopes dashed, Barbie and Oppenheimer remain unscathed, with each receiving four nominations at SAG, including the coveted Outstanding Cast category. This article delves into the reasons behind their success and predicts their future conquests in the film industry’s most esteemed award ceremony.
It is clear that the success of Barbie and Oppenheimer stems from their ability to secure nominations and awards from influential guilds. The DGA’s inclusion of both Greta Gerwig from Barbie and Christopher Nolan from Oppenheimer in the list of five finalists for Best Director is a testament to their talent and industry recognition. Notably, this alignment between guild nominations and eventual Oscar winners in the acting and directing categories has been a long-established trend.
The Directors Guild’s list further complemented the dominance of Barbie and Oppenheimer by including acclaimed directors such as Martin Scorsese for “Killers Of The Flower Moon,” Yorgos Lanthimos for “Poor Things,” and Alexander Payne for “The Holdovers.” These names have been making waves in the industry, with their films gaining momentum on the Q&A and reception circuit. It is highly likely that four out of the five DGA nominees will also secure nominations in the Best Director category at the Oscars, with the fifth slot possibly going to an international film, such as “The Zone Of Interest” or “Anatomy Of A Fall.”
Not every contender had cause for celebration following the DGA nominations. Bradley Cooper, despite his tour-de-force work on “Maestro,” was left out of the list, leaving Gerwig as the sole actor to receive the directors’ approval for her performance. Nonetheless, emerging talents Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction”) and Celine Song (“Past Lives”) found solace in their nominations for First Time Feature Director, even though their chances of making the final Oscar cut may be slim.
The SAG nominations brought their own share of surprises and disappointments. “American Fiction” emerged as a key success story, garnering nominations for both its ensemble and lead actor Jeffrey Wright. It exceeded expectations by also securing a supporting actor nomination for Sterling K. Brown. On the other hand, “Poor Things” missed out on the coveted cast nomination but managed to secure individual nominations for Emma Stone and Willem Dafoe. The film “Killers Of The Flower Moon” achieved recognition through Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro’s individual acting nominations, although Leonardo DiCaprio was snubbed in the lead actor category.
Interestingly, international favorites and Cannes Film Festival sensations “Anatomy Of A Fall” and “The Zone Of Interest” were absent from the SAG nominations. This omission proved disheartening, particularly for German star Sandra Huller, whose performances in both films had garnered notable acclaim. Despite the setback, Huller’s name has been circulated as a potential double acting nominee at the Oscars. However, she will now have to defy the odds without the support of SAG members.
The absence of Todd Haynes’ “May December” from both DGA and SAG nominations served as a warning sign for Netflix. The guilds’ members align most closely with the Academy’s voting body, making their nominations crucial in predicting possible Oscar outcomes. Nevertheless, Netflix had reasons to rejoice, with nominations for Bradley Cooper, Carey Mulligan, Annette Bening, Jodie Foster, and Colman Domingo in various categories. Additionally, NEON found solace in SAG’s recognition of Penelope Cruz’s supporting role in “Ferrari,” following her lack of traction in earlier critics’ contests and award shows like the Golden Globes and Critics Choice.
While a lack of recognition from SAG might dampen spirits for some, it is important to note that SAG’s track record in aligning nominations with the Academy’s acting categories has been inconsistent. Close analysis reveals that the two entities overlap with their nominations around 15 out of 20 times. Therefore, achieving nominations and eventual wins at SAG does not guarantee the same outcome at the Oscars. Other guilds, such as the Producers Guild and BAFTA, will reveal their nominations in the coming weeks, providing further insight into the ever-evolving Oscar race.
Barbie and Oppenheimer have undoubtedly solidified their positions as frontrunners in the Oscar race, with their impressive nominations from guilds like SAG and DGA. However, the road to the Oscars is long and unpredictable. Other contenders still have a chance to rise from the shadows and challenge their dominance. The coming weeks will shed more light on the contenders as the Producers Guild and BAFTA announce their nominations. Until then, the film industry eagerly awaits the unveiling of the coveted Oscar nominations on January 23.
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