American banks are facing significant challenges as interest rates continue to rise, leading to concerns about shrinking margins and increasing loan losses. However, amidst these challenges, there may be a glimmer of hope for the industry. This article analyzes the current situation and explores potential opportunities for American banks.
The surge in interest rates has had a detrimental impact on banks’ bond portfolios. Higher borrowing costs have contributed to funding pressures as banks are forced to pay higher rates for deposits. According to KBW analysts Christopher McGratty and David Konrad, banks’ earnings per share fell by 18% in the third quarter as lending margins compressed and loan demand declined.
The declining revenues, shrinking margins, and slowing growth present a challenging outlook for banks in the near term. The S&P 500 Banks index experienced a 9.3% decline in September due to concerns about the unexpected surge in longer-term interest rates, particularly the 10-year yield. Rising yields lead to a decrease in the value of bonds owned by banks, creating unrealized losses that put pressure on capital levels.
While larger banks have managed to navigate the challenges associated with underwater bonds, Bank of America has struggled. The bank’s significant investments in low-yielding securities during the pandemic resulted in over $100 billion in paper losses on bonds at midyear. This issue has constrained interest revenue and made Bank of America the worst performing stock among the top six U.S. institutions in 2022.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, and others estimate that the impact of the bond rout in the third quarter will be more than double the losses seen in the second quarter. Regional lenders, such as Comerica, Fifth Third Bank, and KeyBank, are expected to be most affected by these bond losses. However, other factors, such as the duration of banks’ bond portfolios, may soften the capital hit for most of the industry. Konrad of KBW suggests that the bond marks will likely resemble those of the previous quarter.
There is also concern that higher interest rates will lead to significant losses in commercial real estate and industrial loans. RBC analyst Gerard Cassidy predicts that loan loss provisions will increase substantially compared to the third quarter of 2022 as banks build up reserves.
Despite these challenges, some banks may experience a short squeeze during the upcoming earnings season. Hedge funds have placed bets on a return of the chaos witnessed in March 2022 when regional banks suffered significant deposit outflows. UBS analyst Erika Najarian suggests that the combination of high short interest and the belief that higher rates could lead to another liquidity crisis may result in a volatile short squeeze.
Goldman Sachs analysts led by Richard Ramsden anticipate stability in deposit levels for banks in the quarter ahead. Additionally, they expect guidance on net interest income in the fourth quarter and beyond to support some banks. Despite the challenges, there is a possibility of a relief rally in the industry due to low expectations and the potential for a turnaround in revenue.
American banks are grappling with the adverse effects of rising interest rates, including shrinking margins and increasing loan losses. However, there may be light at the end of the tunnel as banks navigate through these challenges. By carefully managing their bond portfolios, building up loan loss reserves, and capitalizing on potential opportunities, banks can position themselves for stability and even a relief rally in the future.
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