Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia’s mercenary boss, attempted to stage a “24-hour coup” to overthrow the Russian regime. However, his attempt failed, and he called off the rebellion before reaching Moscow. Although the rebellion was unsuccessful, the fact that Prigozhin could even attempt it with little resistance is seen as a blow to Putin’s regime. Prigozhin’s private military company, the Wagner Group, seized one of the Russian military’s key bases and the city of Rostov-on-Don before proceeding north to Moscow.
Prigozhin’s dispute with the country’s military leadership had been escalating for some time. He accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and army commander Valery Gerasimov of turning their backs on his mercenary force that played a key role in Russia’s intense attritional warfare in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, for months. Tensions came to a head when the defense ministry announced that all private military companies, including Wagner, would have to sign contracts. Putin endorsed the move, but Prigozhin refused to sign, only to then lead his fighters in the ill-fated revolt last Friday.
The rebellion was seen as the biggest challenge to Putin and the Russian elite in decades. Chris Weafer, chief executive of the Moscow-based economic consultancy Macro-Advisory, said that even in a Russia accustomed to crisis and chaos, the events over the weekend were extraordinary. He noted that a heavily armed and determined military force got to within 200 kilometers of Moscow—a feat historically achieved, or attempted, by very few armies. The revolt raises serious questions that will lead to tensions at the upper echelons of power in Russia.
Inevitably, after such extraordinary events, there is considerable speculation about whether there was collusion with a Western power. All of these, and more, will dominate conversations and coverage (especially in Western media) in the coming days and weeks. Macro-Advisory believed that the Russian media would seek to minimize the incident.
The rebellion may have shaken public support for Russia’s operations in Ukraine, and the Kremlin. The Kremlin will now urgently feel compelled to show some battlefield success (that its objectives in Ukraine are being achieved) and it will need to ensure the economy stays on the current recovery path.
Putin initially railed against Prigozhin’s treachery on national TV, but the Kremlin—just hours later—said a deal had been reached in which criminal charges against Prigozhin would be dropped, and he would move to Belarus, along with fighters that had participated in the mutiny. The response appears unduly lenient to those used to the Kremlin’s typically unforgiving dealings with opponents and critics, as Prigozhin has become over time.
Prigozhin’s attempted battle with Putin has sown the seeds of a battle of succession. The struggle for power is on, and it is now more uncertain whether Putin would seek another term in office at the presidential election in 2024. Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard, argued that there is now a nationalist, opposition populist figure who is now relegated to exile in Belarus, and the question is, will he stay there quietly? The compromise with Prigozhin was such that he lost what he was fighting for, which was to maintain his Wagner fighting force’s independence. He lost that battle, but he also won.
The rebellion reveals political cracks within Russia and shatters the myth of Russia’s invincibility and overwhelming power. The fact that Prigozhin could even mount an armed mutiny with his private military company, the Wagner Group, with little resistance and an apparently muted response is seen as a deep political blow for Putin and his regime. Putin and the Kremlin will feel under immense pressure to display strength following such a public show of weakness. If Prigozhin does not pay a heavy price for his rebellion, it will put the Putin regime in serious danger. Political change comes to Russia when three factors are present: a divided elite, a dissatisfied public, and an absence of fear. If fear is removed from the equation, then the regime will be in peril.
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